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Evaluating Guice , Peterson and Thompson's 2019 potential for the Redskins | NBC Sports WashingtonPete Hailey and Brian Mitchell are here to give an update on Derrius Guice's rehab and imagine what the Redskins' backfield will look like next year.Who are the Redskins options for quarterback next season? - The Washington PostWashington has plenty of options through the draft and free agency, but next season’s starter is most likely already on the roster.Three questions for a potential Derrius Guice-Adrian Peterson-Chris Thompson backfield | NBC Sports WashingtonOn a depth chart, a running back group of Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson looks loaded. But there are still pressing questions to figure out regarding that potential trio.Daron Payne's outstanding rookie season rewarded with first-team PFWA honors | NBC Sports WashingtonRedskins rookie defensive lineman Daron Payne was named to the Pro Football Writers of America 2018 All-Rookie Team.Kyler Murray provides draft intrigue for quarterback-needy Redskins - Washington TimesKyler Murray provides a layer of intrigue in what's seen as a shallow class of quarterbacks. The Redskins will likely need to draft a quarterback this April with starter Alex Smith coming off a major leg injury, Colt McCoy also returning from a broken leg and Washington having limited salary cap space.Dexter Manley Highlight Video | "The Secretary of Defense" | Redskins - YouTubeDexter Manley recorded 91 sacks during his time as a Washington Redskins defensive lineman (still the team record) and was part of two Super Bowl championship teams.Drafting a first round QB outside of the top two picks has largely backfired lately | NBC Sports WashingtonIf the Redskins take a first round QB, it'll be outside of the top two picks barring a major, major draft trade. But the past decade has shown that passers taken past the top of the draft largely haven't panned out.Redskins rank surprisingly low on oddsmakers list of landing spots for Kyler Murray | NBC Sports WashingtonThe Redskins need a quarterback in the 2019 NFL Draft, but plenty of other teams do too. At least that's the way oddsmakers believe. The 5 o’clock club is published Wednesday to Saturday during the season, and aims to provide a forum for reader-driven discussion at a time of day when there isn’t much NFL news being published. Feel free to introduce topics that interest you in the comments below.Alex Smith, starting quarterback for the RedskinsWe’re four games into the Alex Smith era.He’s had two good games, each pretty barren of 2nd half scoring, one bad game against the Colts , and one absolute stinker on Monday night in New Orleans.Sub-par performance for the first quarter of the seasonThis is not what the franchise was supposed to be getting in trade from Kansas City.The Redskins were supposed to get a quarterback who was the NFL’s leading passer in 2017, and who spent much of last season in the discussion for league MVP.Why do I think so?Because Jay Gruden said so:This isn’t what we’ve seen from Alex Smith in the first quarter of the 2018 season.He hasn’t really looked comfortable on the field, and the offense has regressed significantly since last year.Should the front office plan to take action at the end of the season?If half of his games are gonna look like the Colts and the Saints, and Alex Smith isn’t able to lead the team to victory “like, right now”, then is it worth having Alex and his 5-year, $111,000,000 contract in DC?I mean, you pay a guy premium money to be a difference-maker.So far Alex hasn’t made any positive difference.Maybe Alex Smith should be gone at the end of this season.I mean, if the Redskins aren’t gonna be in the playoffs anyway, would it be any worse to roll out a budget QB like Colt McCoy for a year?Other teams have successfully relied on short-term placeholders like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh McCown for a few games or a season.The Redskins could draft a rookie QB this offseason , and by 2020 the Redskins could look like the 2018 Bears or Browns, playing exciting ball behind a young signal caller with his entire career in front of him!Yes, I know... the contract and the guaranteed moneyI can hear you shouting at me already... “It’s not possible!” you just yelled out loud as you spilled your morning coffee onto your computer keyboard.“Alex Smith has $71m guaranteed.The Redskins are stuck with him for 3 years — maybe even 5 years.We can’t cut him.”Well... yes and no.Alex Smith isn’t yet guaranteed $71mAlex Smith wasn’t guaranteed $71m at signing his contract.His initial guarantee is for $55m over the first two seasons (‘18 and ‘19).The next $16m — his 2020 salary — becomes guaranteed on or around 18 March, 2019 if Alex Smith is still on the Redskins roster.So, there’s an opportunity to do what the Dolphins did with Ndamukong Suh a couple of years ago — to simply eat a bad contract early, take the dead cap hit, and move on.While this would be expensive, unless Alex Smith can play a lot better than he’s played in the first quarter of the season, it might be worth it.Yes, really.How much would it cost exactly?Cutting Alex Smith at the end of this season would mean that the Redskins paid him exactly $55m to play for one season and never return.In terms of cap hits, here’s how the accounting would work for that $55m:2018 Cap Number: $18.4mDead Cap Hit: $36.6mDon’t get hung up on the dead cap number — that’s not what’s important.What’s important is having a quarterback who can win, and who can lead the team to playoff victories.If the Redskins can’t make the playoffs , the amount of salary cap spent is irrelevant.This would be an expensive move, but it would be like ripping off a bandage in one quick pull.The pain would be over quickly, and the team could move on.Honestly, I think the Redskins can afford it.The structure of the contract makes me think that this was always the “break glass in case of emergency” ejection plan if the Smith deal blew up, and I think it’s part of the reason why the team re-signed Colt McCoy as the backup.Here’s how the scenario would play outThe team would release Alex Smith ahead of free agency in 2019.They would pay him a total of $55m and the Smith era in Washington would come to an end.The current estimated cap space for 2019 would drop by $16m from the current estimate of $24m to only $8m.That $16m isn’t “lost” though — the total available cap space across the three following years (‘20, ‘21 and ‘22) would increase by the same $16m.The Redskins could draft a QB in April and let him learn behind Colt McCoy until he is ready to start.Wait, did you say the ‘Skins would only have $8m in cap space next year?To restore a bit of cap space, the Redskins could part ways with one or all of the following players:Josh Norman = 2019 cap savings of $8.5mJordan Reed = 2019 cap savings of $6.1mVernon Davis = 2019 cap savings of $5mParting with all three players would add $19.6m to the available cap space, meaning that the Redskins would have an estimated $27.6m in cap space available in 2019.This would increase available cap space in future years tooIn the years beyond 2019, cutting Reed would add back an additional $17m to the salary cap, for a total 3-year savings of $23.1m, while Josh Norman’s release would add an additional $12.5m to the salary cap in 2020 , meaning a total cap savings of $21m over two seasons.In all, the release of Norman, Reed and Davis at the end of the 2018 season would make $49.1m in cap space available between 2019 and 2021.That could pay for a bit of replacement talent.The front office would have to act decisively There is only a short window to make this move.The front office would have to release Smith in January or February, ahead of 18 March when his 2020 salary becomes guaranteed.Once that salary becomes guaranteed, Smith’s dead cap hit rises to $52.6m, and the Redskins have every financial motivation to keep him on the roster for at least another two years.The real question here isn’t whether the Redskins should try to avoid a large dead cap hit, but whether the Redskins can win with Alex Smith at quarterback for the next two to four seasons.If Smith can’t win and succeed in the playoffs, there’s no reason for him to be here, and it will be better for the franchise to act decisively in January or February than to simply tread water for several seasons because of a bad personnel decision.If the front office pulled the trigger on this, what would it mean for 2019?The 2019 Redskins would go into the season with Colt McCoy at QB, a rookie draft pick as the backup, and Sprinkle as the only veteran tight end on the team , but the available salary cap for 2019 would allow the team to extend key players and make one or two key veteran free agent signings next off-season.Next season, 2019, would be a ‘rebuild’ year for the Redskins, but if all we can expect from Alex Smith is 2-4 years of .500 seasons, is it worth sticking to the current plan?Wouldn’t the team be better off just accepting the financial hit on a bad decision and moving on?Before anyone starts to type “So, another 5 year plan??!!” in the headline of a comment box, let me refer to a recent OverTheCap article to explain what I mean when I say that 2019 would be “a rebuild year” for the Redskins (note that I didn’t say it would be “the beginning of a rebuild”).This is the model that the Redskins should rely on if they believe that Alex Smith can only keep them “in purgatory between 6 and 9 wins a year” for the next few seasons.If the front office ripped the bandage off in February by sending Alex Smith packing and then aggressively going after a talented QB in the draft, for 2020 and beyond the Redskins would have a young quarterback to build around and plenty of cap space to work with.The only thing that needs to happen is for the Redskins to ‘pull the trigger’ on releasing Alex Smith before 18 March.Alex Smith contract details per OverTheCap:
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